tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post8771737276199109570..comments2007-06-27T12:54:23.021-04:00Justinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-23167158153733309982007-06-27T12:54:00.000-04:002007-06-27T12:54:00.000-04:00Chris, I'm no mechanics expert either (I just learned last month that they actually play these games in person and not on computers), but it may just be the leg kick that gets me. I guess I compare him to Harang, whose motion is fluid and almost identical every time, and it looks like Arroyo has more rigidity in his motion. I can't prove that it means anything, but I can't imagine that Bronson can handle the same workload that Harang takes on. It's strictly an opinion though.Joelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-11149927782175794752007-06-27T00:21:00.000-04:002007-06-27T00:21:00.000-04:00Phil,<BR/><BR/>Yeah, there aren't many scientists who go into politics. :)<BR/><BR/>Anonymous,<BR/><BR/>Thanks!<BR/><BR/>I haven't run the numbers, but it'd almost certainly be the case that Arroyo (or almost any pitcher) is better when he throws the most pitches. But I think the causation is the other way around--when he's throwing well, he'll get the opportunity to throw more pitches than otherwise. His shortest outing of the last two seasons, by pitch count, is his 62-pitch outing against Washington in which he only got six outs. <BR/><BR/>But you're right that one has to balance the chance to win the current game with the chance to win future games. If the bullpen was reliable, it'd be an easy decision to pull Arroyo at ~105 pitches. But since the bullpen isn't reliable, it's something a manager has to wrestle with.<BR/>-jJustinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-58520482199937568182007-06-26T23:24:00.000-04:002007-06-26T23:24:00.000-04:00This is an awesome analysis, but gets me curious. Looking at the starts based upon what he did in the last start seems to yield rather telling data...however, I wonder if you categorized his starts by those same pitch counts if you would find that his higher pitch outings were more effective ones, and while the evidence seems to suggest that this hurts him in his next start, maybe they are getting everything they can from him while he's pitching well. In other words, maybe its worse than Reds fans fear--maybe he doesn't pitch well unless he throws a lot of pitches, but doesn't pitch well the next game unless he does. Just throwing that out there to cause more havoc. I think your onto something with this theory in general though.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-30295857103843070412007-06-26T21:48:00.000-04:002007-06-26T21:48:00.000-04:00<I>True enough, though I try hard to back up any opinion I have with some sort of evidence.</I><BR/><BR/>You've got no future in politics with that attitude, son. ;-)Philnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-29014006783827881712007-06-26T19:25:00.000-04:002007-06-26T19:25:00.000-04:00True enough, though I try hard to back up any opinion I have with some sort of evidence. And when it comes to mechanics, I've got nothing. :) -jJustinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-83557671083257612482007-06-26T18:09:00.000-04:002007-06-26T18:09:00.000-04:00Justin,<BR/><BR/><I>I should probably avoid trying to make any comments about pitching mechanics, as I probably don't have a clue what I'm talking about.</I><BR/><BR/>Hey, this is just a bunch of tubes they call the Interwebs...or something (thank you, Senator Stevens). Knowing what you're talking about isn't required here. ;-)Philnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-4773855517269091302007-06-26T17:05:00.000-04:002007-06-26T17:05:00.000-04:00I should probably avoid trying to make any comments about pitching mechanics, as I probably don't have a clue what I'm talking about.<BR/><BR/>To me, he looks a bit snappy on the first part of his approach to the plate (post-kick). But I don't know anything, and probably should avoid making such a comment. I certainly have never had any instruction on how to throw off a mound.<BR/>-jJustinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-76085885620310822612007-06-26T15:59:00.000-04:002007-06-26T15:59:00.000-04:00Justin,<BR/><BR/>I'm probably overly optimistic on Belisle - small sample size. I guess I'm hoping he's found himself this year. Walking guys seems to the the Achilles heel of everyone in the rotation save Harang.<BR/><BR/>Yeah, I know about Stanton's peripherals and his BABIP. Stanton sticks in my craw for the same reason Castro does. A rebuilding organization has no business giving multi-year contracts to old guys who represent fungible commodities. <BR/><BR/>I don't know that I'd call Bronson herky-jerky. He's not Fernando or El Tiante. But he uses a lot of arm slots, whether intentional or not. That may be what her needs to do to get the off-speed stuff to move or it may lead to inefficiency and a lack of repeatable results.Philnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-44285123746703115172007-06-26T15:28:00.000-04:002007-06-26T15:28:00.000-04:00Awesome stuff. I'm been waiting for someone (i.e. you) to look at this issue. <BR/><BR/>Do you guys really consider Arroyo to be "herky-jerky"? His motion is definitely <I>unusual</I>, but I actually think he looks extremely fluid on the mound...like Plasticman or something.Chris at Redleg Nationhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03474147423587094139noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-86934881538655267102007-06-26T15:19:00.000-04:002007-06-26T15:19:00.000-04:00Phil,<BR/><BR/>You can read my assessment of the Arroyo extension <A HREF="http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2007/02/reds-extend-arroyo.html" REL="nofollow">here.</A> I think you'll find that I share your concerns about his 2006 performance and future prospects.<BR/><BR/>As far as Bailey and Belisle...I certainly hope that Bailey lives up to his potential. Sky's the limit, as long as he can stay healthy. That's always an "if" with a pitching prospect, of course.<BR/><BR/>I'm not as optimistic on Belisle, unfortunately. His minor league numbers are not particularly impressive, and his peripherals last year were horrendous. If he can maintain good control, which he has this season, he might be able to keep pace with Arroyo in years to come. But if he starts walking guys again, he might implode, as he doesn't strike out very many hitters. I think the Reds' online fanbase overrates him a bit, but I'd be delighted to be wrong about that.<BR/><BR/>Also, fwiw, all indications are that Stanton is actually pitching quite well for the Reds. Peripherals are right in line with his past seasons, and his FIP is a tidy 3.53. It's that 0.374 BABIP that is killing him, and it's unlikely that that's his fault.<BR/>-jJustinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-32314820104703577422007-06-26T13:55:00.000-04:002007-06-26T13:55:00.000-04:00Justin,<BR/><BR/>I'm not suggesting that we use Arroyo like the Red Sox did. To begin with, We don't have that luxury. It's that their usage underscores the problem of Bronson getting into high pitch count situations and it was an effective way for Boston to both keep him out of trouble and maximize his usefulness.<BR/><BR/>If by fine starter you mean a solid No 3 in his best outings, I'd probably agree. But before Arroyo's current contract is out, I expect both Belisle and Bailey to provide more value in the rotation. <BR/><BR/>There's nothing in Arroyo's history that suggests he belongs at the top of a rotation and a lot to suggest that 2006 may have been either a career year or that he was the beneficiary of a return to the NL. He's on the wrong side of 30 now and I wouldn't expect him to get any better. OTOH, I wouldn't expect a rapid decline as long as he can keep his off-speed stuff working to set up his "fastball". Like I said, a useful innings eater who will have flashes of brilliance and be overpaid in '09 and '10.<BR/><BR/>What we really need to insure getting the best from Arroyo is a decent bullpen and a manager who knows how to use that bullpen to best effect. In fact, with a couple of exceptions, I'd like to see this bullpen in the hands of someone who knew what he was doing before it gets blown up and redone. Stanton, however, can be taken out behind the barn and put out of his misery.<BR/><BR/>BTW, Will Carrol has a bit on this over at B-Pro in his daily column. Apparently Jayson Stark (!?) is going to tackle the subject for ESPN.com. ;-)Philnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-8395591810873811972007-06-26T12:49:00.000-04:002007-06-26T12:49:00.000-04:00I think Arroyo's a fine starter, just not someone who you should let go deep into ballgames. He's sort of like Pedro Martinez has been the past few years in that respect, just not quite as good. :) -jJustinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-52236320753993214622007-06-25T20:42:00.000-04:002007-06-25T20:42:00.000-04:00Justin,<BR/><BR/>I'd like to second Doug's sentiments. This blog is never less than engaging.<BR/><BR/>On Bronson... there was a reason (besides deeper starting pitching) that the Red Sox shuttled Arroyo between spot starting and long relief. I think you've shown that.<BR/><BR/>And I'll reiterate. I think Arroyo will be a league-average innings eater for the remainder of the contract. That's valuable, although the Reds will overpay for that service in '09 and '10.Philnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-30200333844292158962007-06-25T20:08:00.000-04:002007-06-25T20:08:00.000-04:00Justin,<BR/><BR/>Have I ever told you how much I really enjoy what you do?<BR/><BR/>Again, great stuff.Doug Grayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06429070071208586169noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-24314775336319645652007-06-25T12:32:00.000-04:002007-06-25T12:32:00.000-04:00<I>I wonder also if it's not just his motion but the fact that Arroyo relies on his curveball much more than Harang. I have to imagine that his arm is more tired after a similar number of pitches just because of the types of pitches he throws.</I><BR/><BR/>That's a really interesting point. Arroyo also uses multiple arm slots, which might make him more prone to losing his control when he's tired. I dunno, lots of cool hypotheticals, but unfortunately it gets tough to test the importance of these issues.<BR/><BR/><I>Or, Jeff Brantley could be right and Arroyo just might enjoy his rock star lifestyle too much. Do you have any graphs on that? :)</I><BR/><BR/>I'm having trouble getting a complete list of his gigs over the past season and a half. Do you have any inside sources? :)<BR/><BR/>Nice to hear from you.<BR/>-jJustinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-55158366795128843062007-06-25T11:57:00.000-04:002007-06-25T11:57:00.000-04:00Very nice. Obviously not definitive, but I think it shows enough to know that Arroyo and Harang should be handled differently. I wonder also if it's not just his motion but the fact that Arroyo relies on his curveball much more than Harang. I have to imagine that his arm is more tired after a similar number of pitches just because of the types of pitches he throws.<BR/><BR/>Or, Jeff Brantley could be right and Arroyo just might enjoy his rock star lifestyle too much. Do you have any graphs on that? :)Joelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08493717107262478265noreply@blogger.com