tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post8462912520282581145..comments2009-03-10T09:17:39.607-04:00Justinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-213957131685718122009-03-10T09:17:00.000-04:002009-03-10T09:17:00.000-04:00@Anonymous,<BR/><BR/>I don't disagree with anything that you're saying. I think we're just answering the question on two different levels. To compare this to some biological jargon, you're answering it on the "ultimate" level and I'm answering it on the "proximate" or "mechanistic" level.<BR/><BR/>Essentially, this article was about clutch--how well does a team's raw numbers compare to their WPA numbers. That's not to say that there is repeatable signal behind these deviations--it just lets us know specifically where deviations have occurred. That's what my last paragraph was about.<BR/>-jJustinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07697776280178146413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23241716.post-67729387394115426272009-03-10T01:00:00.000-04:002009-03-10T01:00:00.000-04:00Most teams aren't going to hit it right on. The theory is not perfect. There is a luck factor but one thing not stated is that will eventually be made up. If a team finished 74-88 and should have been 78-84 it will be made up in the next season or two. There is a consequence for everything--universal law but the consequence doesn't always happen righ away. In 2006 Cleveland should have been 89-73 and they were something like 11 games below where they should have been. In was a cinch that they were going to win the AL Central in 2007. Tampa Bay was well above what they should have been so don't expect a lot in 2009. The Angels were 12 games over their expected and they will eventually have to pay for that. The Tigers and Cleveland consistently finish below their expecteds but eventually will overachieve to make up for the bad luck they've had. Minnesota has lately had good luck and their division win in 2006 was mainly luck--they should have finished three games below the Tigers instead of a game above. Minnesota was swept in the first round and it appears they are having to pay for it now--little by little.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com