Comments on Basement Dwellers: Player Value, Part 4: Position Player Wrap-Up

Hi Justin (funny--I used to go by Justin In AZ!),<...

2008-02-19T06:42:00.000-05:00

Hi Justin (funny--I used to go by Justin In AZ!),

Skyking162 did a nice recap of shortstop performances last year. He had Tulowitzki producing 24 runs above a replacement player on offense (after park adjustment), and another 22 runs on defense. When you also add in a 5 run value bonus for playing a premium position, that puts him at 51 runs above replacement last season. Certainly, you have to project a bit weaker performance next year, but 40 runs above replacement isn't out of the question for the guy. He's awesome.

In contrast, Derek Jeter was +41 RAR on offense, but a miserable -24 runs on defense. He's routinely been 1-2 wins below average on defense throughout most of his career, so this wasn't a surprise. The result was a player, after value boost due to playing shortstop, of +22 runs.

So, by that comparison alone, Tulowitzki's about twice as valuable as Jeter. Now, add on top of that fact that Tulo's making just $31 million over the next six years, compared to Jeter's $20 million per year? My goodness, yeah, he's Tulowitki's a heck of a lot more valuable of a property than is Jeter.
-j

A friend of mine and I are having a debate of who ...

2008-02-18T17:55:00.000-05:00

A friend of mine and I are having a debate of who is more valuable, Troy Tulowitski or Derek Jeter?

He says Jeter, and I say Tulo.

When I offered my opinion why I valued Tulo more, I was quickly rebutted with, "You cannot punish a player's value because the player has an exceeding contract, especially since the players that you are comparing to havent yet hit the market"

I just wanted to get another persons opinion on this subject....

Do you think a players value should have his salary factored in when determining his overall value?

In my opinion, a player like Tulo, who is giving the same offensive production as Jeter, better defense, for a cheaper price (Tulo 5 million, 20 mill for Jeter); is much more valuable overall.

In his opinion, they cant be compared due to Tulo never hitting the open market....which I think is ridiculous.

Please help with this situation, if you can.

Thank you,

Justin - Cincinnati

Justin,

Very interesting. I can only imagi...

2007-11-10T11:03:00.000-05:00

Justin,

Very interesting. I can only imagine the amount of time you put into it. I'm looking forward to your pitcher evaluations.

As far as Dunn goes, I'd still like to see him signed to a multi-year deal even though he's a defensive liability. I think it would be very difficult to replace his offense. Plus, Griffey's contract expires next year. I think we'd really miss Dunn in 2009 if he's traded.

Doug,

I think you might be going the wrong ...

2007-11-09T13:22:00.000-05:00

Doug,

I think you might be going the wrong route to try to improve the run differential. I think moving your second most valuable player would make it harder to improve the run diff. Your outfield plan depends a lot on both Hamilton and Griffey remaining healthy. I think if he's healthy, Hamilton could replace Dunn's production (with Bruce replacing Hamilton's), but Hamilton's injuries last season were during some less than strenuous events. It's not like he was running into walls or sliding hard into a base. I think if you want to compete in 2008, you need Dunn's durability and production in the lineup, even if he's not a great defensive player.

I think if you're looking for bullpen help, the person to look at trading is Gonzalez. I know he doesn't have as much value as Dunn, but he should be able to pull a bullpen arm or two in a deal. Plus, his production is easier to replace than Dunn's (it shouldn't take a best case scenario to replace him) and they would still be saving some money that they could use to sign more bullpen help.

I think trading Dunn before his no-trade clause runs out will be difficult in the sense that you'll need the perfect storm of the right team (i.e. willing to take a chance on what could be a one year rental), with the right return, that Dunn will want to play for. I think it's more likely that he will get dealt in July, when a team in contention could use a bat to replace an injured player or fill a hole in their lineup. Also, the Reds will have more options then (10 teams) that won't require Dunn to sign off on the deal.

Justin,
I don't think Bruce will outproduce Dun...

2007-11-09T12:09:00.000-05:00

Justin,
I don't think Bruce will outproduce Dunn next year, but given Hamiltons defense over there along with his offense (given he can stay healthy and clean) he has a legit shot at outproducing Dunn in LF. Then sliding Bruce into CF, where if I am getting correct reports, he is still slightly above average in CF defensively, he is a defensive upgrade over Hamilton for the time being and could still be an above average CFer at the plate. Griffey is still Griffey, plus bat, minus glove...

As for Dunns contract, yes, he does have a no trade clause, but if the Reds get the right deal and tell him they aren't going to be signing him after the season, and its to a team he likes, he could always waive it and be moved.

Really though, I have just been running a million ideas around on how to improve the run differential of this team and this is one that I come back to often considering that you will get some talent back for Dunn and likely some money to maybe get a bullpen arm or two if you so choose to go that route.

Hi Doug,

These total value ratings "try" to...

2007-11-09T10:56:00.000-05:00

Hi Doug,

These total value ratings "try" to account for variation among positions, such that a player will retain roughly equal value wherever you put them. That's not strictly true, of course, because different positions require different skills. I have no doubt that Hamilton would be a brilliant left fielder, though his arm might be wasted a bit there.

On average, an average center fielder (which is about what Hamilton is) would save +9 runs/season above average in left field. However, under this system, that value would be counteracted by removing a +5 runs/season bonus for playing center field, and adding a -4 runs/season penalty for playing left field.

FWIW, I'm skeptical that Bruce can outperform Dunn, at least in the near-term. If he has a superb season, though, he might out-perform Griffey. Seems to me that a Chris Young-type season might be what we'd expect from Bruce this year though...

Also, regarding moving Dunn--doesn't he have a no trade clause until mid-next season now?
-j

Justin,

Given roughly where Hamilton rated ...

2007-11-09T09:48:00.000-05:00

Justin,

Given roughly where Hamilton rated with centerfielders I was wondering what your rough guess would be with how he would be as a LFer. Comparable to Dunns overall value? Higher?

Basically I have been tossing around the idea in my head of moving Dunn, replacing him in LF with Hamilton, puting Bruce in CF and leaving Griffey in RF since he will likely be more difficult to move than Dunn. I have a feeling that having a Hamilton/Bruce/Griffey outfield could out produce a Dunn/Hamilton/Griffey OF next season... just me thinking out loud and seeing what anyone else thought.

Payroll questions definitely take this stuff to th...

2007-11-08T15:48:00.000-05:00

Payroll questions definitely take this stuff to the next level of complexity. I think Dave Studeman and JC Bradbury have done some of the best work on monetary value of production, but even with their excellent work it may be over simplified--the best players provide production that simply cannot be replaced by one player, which may mean that there's potentially a nonlinear relationship between value and price tag for those individuals that is only countered by team payroll limitations (i.e. do you pay the same for 50 TVAR if it comes from one player vs. 2 players?). Factor in ever-increasing team budgets and you have a damn complicated thing to try to understand.

I'm not going to touch monetary player value issues for quite a while. :)
-j

Joel, I think an important offshoot to your questi...

2007-11-08T14:44:00.000-05:00

Joel, I think an important offshoot to your question is the money question. If Adam Dunn is worth 15M as a 40 run player, does that make Alex Gonzalez worth 7.5 as a 20 run player?

I think your non-linearity would really show up in payroll distribution. How much is a run worth? Is it linear? In the market, are runs consistently valued by position? Is there an exponential increase of cost per run at the player level?

Hi Joel,

Had a nice chat with you just now....

2007-11-08T13:24:00.000-05:00

Hi Joel,

Had a nice chat with you just now. :)

I think our takes on Dunn are largely the same. 30 TVAR players don't grow on trees. :)

As for the runs vs. wins issue, I keep falling back on the regression I posted in the first part of this series: variation in run differential explains 90% of variation in win totals, and runs scored tells as much about wins as runs saved. It's true that there could be some linearity problems with extreme players (e.g. Dunn, Adam), but I think we're getting pretty close to the mark with these data.
-j

Good work, Justin. I'd say those rankings are pre...

2007-11-08T12:50:00.000-05:00

Good work, Justin. I'd say those rankings are pretty much in line with what I'd expect. Hamilton's season was quite impressive given his limited playing time. Hopefully he can maintain that level next year but give us more games.

On Dunn, it should be noted from sky's list that only 5 LF had a better total year than Dunn last year. Obviously someone could move from another position and probably handle LF, but I'm not sure it's so easy to replace 30 runs as it might seem on the surface. I'm not sure he's worth $15 million, but I'm also not sure you can replace him on the free agent market for much less.

One last thought. There is still a part of me that wonders if these aggregate numbers are assuming too much linearity in baseball. I think what would make me see this more clearly is if you could (once you get the pitchers done) show how these numbers lead to a win-loss probability. Theoretically, if all of these runs are equal, then we should be able to reasonably predict how a team of a total value distribution would do.

Am I right in thinking this or am I misunderstanding something? Do I even make sense?

Hi,

Thanks, glad you've enjoyed it! Next u...

2007-11-08T11:30:00.000-05:00

Hi,

Thanks, glad you've enjoyed it! Next up is pitcher evaluations, though those parts should be shorter because a lot of the ground for those pieces has already been laid.

As for Dunn, what these data indicate is that he could probably be replaced for a 30 RAR bat who plays slightly above average defense in left field (+4 vs. average to make up for the -4 LF penalty). The problem is that those players are not necessarily easy to find--the Reds only had three guys who broke 30 RAR last year, and only one of them played above average defense (Phillips)! I definitely think it was worth picking up the one year option. Whether it's worth it to try to sign him to a long-term extension is another question.
-j

Justin,

I must say that I loved this series...

2007-11-08T10:34:00.000-05:00

Justin,

I must say that I loved this series of mini research papers and analysis. It has kept me from two hours of work over the last two weeks I am sure... but that is certainly no complaint.

I wish more people would be willing to factor defense into a players overall value. I have had many arguments lately concerning Adam Dunns value and how it may be easier to replace than a lot would like to admit with just a solid-average defender and a lesser bat, although still a good bat without having to replace his walks and HR all in 1 big swoop. Given that he plays a corner outfield position, it seems that most people think that other guys suck in LF too so defense out there doesn't matter. Obviously, as we know, thats not true.... anyways, I am rambling now becuase I don't want to go back to working, but great stuff once again.

Comments on Basement Dwellers: Player Value, Part 4: Position Player Wrap-Up

Hi Justin (funny--I used to go by Justin In AZ!),<...

A friend of mine and I are having a debate of who ...

Justin,Very interesting. I can only imagi...

Doug,I think you might be going the wrong ...

Justin,I don't think Bruce will outproduce Dun...

Hi Doug,These total value ratings "try" to...

Justin,Given roughly where Hamilton rated ...