Comments on Basement Dwellers: Krivsky Fired, Jocketty Hired

I'm not a Reds fan, but I am a Twins fan, and I've...

2008-07-14T11:40:00.000-04:00

I'm not a Reds fan, but I am a Twins fan, and I've seen what this man has helped build in the Twins organization that continues to this day.

The Reds will regret losing Krivsky, and there's no question that Jocketty will benefit quite handsomely from the fact that K focused on DEVELOPING talent in your farm system and not buying it on the open market.

But if you guys had given him a chance to build an organization, you'd have been much richer for it. I wish Wayne the best.

Here's a great little passage from yahoo.com on Ar...

2008-04-25T00:10:00.000-04:00

Here's a great little passage from yahoo.com on Arroyo:
Bronson Arroyo is in a dilemma and he can't figure it out.

He has watched video and he talked for a long time after Wednesday's game with catcher David Ross.

For the fifth straight time, Arroyo did not make it past 5 2/3 innings, this time going only 3 2/3 against the Astros and giving up eight runs and 10 hits. He is 0-3 with a 7.56 ERA.

"I can't figure it out," he said. "I feel good physically, actually great. I'm just getting beat up, man, and I don't understand it."

Manager Dusty Baker said there is no thought of moving him out of the rotation, "But we sure can't figure out what's wrong," he said of the guy who signed a four year, $32 million contract last year.

If that's not a case where DIPS theory serves as a beautiful explanation, I don't know what is. I'm not saying that's the only thing wrong with Arroyo, but I think it's a big part of it.
-j

Re: Krivsky's drafts.....

Its about 3-5 yea...

2008-04-24T16:47:00.000-04:00

Re: Krivsky's drafts.....

Its about 3-5 years too early to know how good or bad his drafts were. Heck, his first draft class is only in their second full season and its April.

Regarding Arroyo, his salary for '09 and '10 pays ...

2008-04-24T16:32:00.000-04:00

Regarding Arroyo, his salary for '09 and '10 pays him as almost exactly a 2.0 WAR pitcher. Last year, he was roughly a 2.5-3.0 WAR pitcher. So, the projection on him this year is (very roughly) 2.0-2.5 WAR, '09 1.5-2.0 WAR, and '10 1.0-1.5 WAR.

So yes, he's being overpaid in the last two years of his contract by (maybe) ~$5 million/year (based on current free agent salaries and 10% inflation). I'm not arguing that it's a great contract. But it's not a terrible contract. Cordero, for example, is getting paid roughly twice what he's projected to be worth over the ENTIRE life of his contract. So his is arguably much worse.

Also, don't let Arroyo's '08 ERA get you too concerned. As of now, his BABIP is 0.373, and his xFIP (which is a DIPS-estimate of ERA and accounts for his abberant HR/F ratio) is 4.36. His strikeout rate is up, which has been a good indicator of his success over his career. It's true that his fastball speed is down about a mph according to fangraphs, and his walk rate is up a tad... but even so, I'm not seeing any reason to be hugely concerned that he's on a steep decline. Just keep sending him out there.

Regarding Krivsky's drafts, please provide links (or at least names) if you're going to cite anonymous "experts." Looking at the current set of top Reds prospects, the only ones that aren't Krivsky's guys are the Fabulous Four (Bailey, Votto, Cueto, Bruce). But almost all the other guys were signed or acquired under Krivsky's watch--and there's some good quality talent in there. Overall, I think he did a bang-up job with our minor league system.
-j

Arroyo's 25 million contract for 2009 and 2010 isn...

2008-04-24T16:08:00.000-04:00

Arroyo's 25 million contract for 2009 and 2010 isn't as bad as some people make it out to be? Seriously? Considering that if the Reds are to be a contending team during those years, Arroyo will be mopping up in the pen, somehow I think it's going to be seen as pretty bad.

Also regarding the Kriv: most analysts who know much better than I do say his drafts have been weak. We should all be thankful he's not getting a shot at another round. Which is all to say: Dan O'Brien improved the state of the farm, not Krivsky .. doubt Jocketty will do any better. He wasn't exactly known for developing talent in St. Louis.

It's great that Castellini wants to win, but it doesn't look like he really knows how to put together a plan to make it happen.

Wayne didn't even get to really 'run' the Reds thi...

2008-04-24T01:08:00.000-04:00

Wayne didn't even get to really 'run' the Reds this year.

Some reports indicated that Dusty wasnot really his choice for manager...he clearly had Walt J. thrust upon him last year to look over his shoulder.

So WK gets brought in late in February of 2006, gets all of 2007(manager firings and all), and 21 games this year with Dusty and Walt forced on him. Some fair chance that was!

I think overall WK did a great job with what he had to work with. I too would have given him the rest of the season at least.

I just want to reiterate what RMR said about Jocke...

2008-04-23T21:03:00.000-04:00

I just want to reiterate what RMR said about Jocketty being pushed out basically because of his anti-stat look on things. This actually came from a source inside the Cardinals organization. Obviously, as you can tell by my post on my site, I am not that happiest person about the move. It just simply makes no real sense. It would be like sending Dunn to the minors because he is hitting .217 and slugging .400 to this point in the season. Just wouldn't make any sense. This 9-1 game isn't helping today out much either.

I agree with all that, and Doug.

I RIPPED...

2008-04-23T20:39:00.000-04:00

I agree with all that, and Doug.

I RIPPED Krivsky for some of his terrible moves, but the guy deserved the rest of the season to see his plan through.

Not looking forward to being the Yankees without the winning. Or the Redskins.

I think Doug Gray's take on Castellini might be right: "Our owner has his heart in the right place wanting to win, but has his head somewhere else on how to actually accomplish it."
-j

Well Dusty and him can wax poetically about ways t...

2008-04-23T19:17:00.000-04:00

Well Dusty and him can wax poetically about ways to not clog the bases. You have to wonder if Castellini's close relationship with Jocketty might have clouded his judgement here. It could be worse. They could have made Baker GM/Manager.

Scott

Yeah, that along the lines of what I've heard as w...

2008-04-23T16:04:00.000-04:00

Yeah, that along the lines of what I've heard as well. -j

Regarding Jocketty's position on the stats side of...

2008-04-23T16:03:00.000-04:00

Regarding Jocketty's position on the stats side of things, my understanding is that he was more or less pushed out of St. Louis by the growing influence of sabermetric types in the organization.

My understanding is that Bill DeWitt wanted to move the quantitative portion of the office from the back room, "yeah, we do that", type of operation to a more integrated part of the decision making process. Jocketty didn't agree and DeWitt encouraged him to leave.

Take that for what it's worth, but unfortunately I don't think we're going to see much change philosophically speaking.

Yeah, that's from my collection. :) I think it wa...

2008-04-23T15:58:00.000-04:00

Yeah, that's from my collection. :) I think it was taking during the Jerry Narron firing press conference. Credit to AP/David Kohl. -j

That first picture is just perfect Justin. Good s...

2008-04-23T15:56:00.000-04:00

That first picture is just perfect Justin. Good stuff.