Comments on Basement Dwellers: Trade Season

Yep--and preferably young AA all-stars. :D ...

2007-06-20T13:24:00.000-04:00

Yep--and preferably young AA all-stars. :D -j

Great analysis Justin...

We need AA all sta...

2007-06-20T10:26:00.000-04:00

Great analysis Justin...

We need AA all stars, in essence.

Hey, at least that contract is off the books as of...

2007-06-18T19:21:00.000-04:00

Hey, at least that contract is off the books as of the end of the season! That's $10 million more they can work with, in addition to whatever they save by moving players at the deadline. -j

Eric Milton make 10mil!! I'm tying not to puke as ...

2007-06-18T18:28:00.000-04:00

Eric Milton make 10mil!! I'm tying not to puke as I type this.

Hatteberg's a particularly obvious case, given tha...

2007-06-18T15:11:00.000-04:00

Hatteberg's a particularly obvious case, given that Joey Votto's tearing it up in Louisville right now. I've heard that scouts have been checking Hatteberg out, so signs are good on that front. -j

- Lohse is a FA after this season, as said above, ...

2007-06-18T08:48:00.000-04:00

- Lohse is a FA after this season, as said above, and he is a Boras client. I don't see the Reds getting in on that bidding war. Which is fine by me, considering that their rotation for 2008 and beyond already includes Harang, BA, Bailey and Belisle. Elizardo or someone in Louisville should be able to fill the 5th spot. Lohse has also been known as somewhat of a head case in the past, and I'd be reluctant to give him a L/T deal.

- Completely agree about Weathers and Hatteberg - let's sell high for a change.

Great stuff, as always.

Phil, erithotl, and mark, thanks for the great and...

2007-06-17T14:55:00.000-04:00

Phil, erithotl, and mark, thanks for the great and thoughful comments. As has been the consensus view in this thread, we shall see! The next month and a half will tell us a lot about Krivsky's abilities as a general manager. Hopefully he'll do us proud.

...Just heard John Fay talking to Marty about Dunn's contract for next year, saying there's no way that the Reds will take on Dunn's $13 million extension. I have absolutely no idea why that seems to be such a certainty to him. Moving Griffey, Hatteberg, Weathers, and Stanton (get well soon) would more than make up for the needed financial flexibility, and it would give us at least one more year of 0.850-0.950 OPS production in left field. And if the Reds are out of it in 2008 at this time, you can move Dunn for talent then. He's not going to decline in that time period.

Nevertheless, I try not to get too worked up about what John Fay thinks. Much of it is speculation, and I can do that just as well as he can. :) -j

Folks expect players to falter in their developmen...

2007-06-17T10:34:00.000-04:00

Folks expect players to falter in their development, and are willing to invest in young players with an upside. But with GM's, they want a genius now. It doesn't work that way. Krivsky got fleeced by Bowden, and is probably smarter for it. He has made some good deals and bad deals. I hope he is around for the inevitable rise of this franchise. I think he is a great prospect.

Just discovered your blog, and am quite enjoying t...

2007-06-17T09:51:00.000-04:00

Just discovered your blog, and am quite enjoying the combination of Reds commentary with a statistical bent.

I also agree with your analysis. The scary thing about Krivsky is he is in a position right now where he can make strong moves towards building a contender, or sink the franchise into another guarenteed 5 years of losing and hopelessness, and we have NO IDEA which he will do. His stated plans and his past moves haven't given us enough information to make a proper evaluation.

You would think he would have learned from last year's horrible mistake but he has made no indication that he views it that way, and the fact that some people still think that the Kearns trade was justified (based on the idea that he should go for it) ignore that the players he got couldn't have realistically helped the team even if they hadn't been hurt.

Having lived out of the midwest for years it's been difficult to follow the team. If Wayne makes a disasterous move this trading deadline, I think it's time for me to shift my allegience to the Devil Rays.

Thanks Christopher! I thought that was the case, ...

2007-06-16T18:03:00.000-04:00

Thanks Christopher! I thought that was the case, but didn't find a reference after a quick search. Good to know for sure--now the Reds need to sign the guy! -j

Don't know about a general resource for an 'impend...

2007-06-16T17:04:00.000-04:00

Don't know about a general resource for an 'impending free agents' list, but this article from this past February states unequivocally that Lohse is playing out his final arbitration-eligible year in 2007, and will be a free agent at the end of this season.

Justin,

Great summation. I think I agree w...

2007-06-16T14:53:00.000-04:00

Justin,

Great summation. I think I agree with just about everything (not that it matters). Moving Junior should be priority No 1 (although I'm pretty sure moving Dunner currently occupies that spot). If Griffey isn't traded now, we are pretty much saying he's going to finish the contract as a Red.

I would love to trade Stanton, but he's guaranteed $3M in '08. Now $3M is chump change in today's market. But why would you pay a 40-year-old, stick-a-fork-in-him-cuz'-he's done LOOGY 3 mil if you didn't have to?

@Ken,

Neat site, thanks for the link!

2007-06-16T13:50:00.000-04:00
@Ken,

Neat site, thanks for the link!

@Shawn,

I never claimed it was original, and mentioned as much in a reply to one of your posts last month. :)

This isn't exactly rocket science though--this is (to me, and you) the obvious thing that the Reds should be doing. I just wanted to state my opinion on what the Reds should be doing. That's why I have the blog.

Not everything I post has to be some grand insight. :) Though I think I contribute my share of original points now and then. -j

Well, Justin, you're kinda saying what I've been s...

2007-06-16T12:21:00.000-04:00

Well, Justin, you're kinda saying what I've been saying for the last month. But you have pretty graphs. ;-)

Cool post.

This page breaks down the Reds c...

2007-06-16T06:22:00.000-04:00

Cool post.

This page breaks down the Reds chances of making the playoffs based on how many wins they finish the season with:
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/MLB/National/Central/Reds.html

The numbers are optimistic because it uses the "flip a coin" algorithm, and some of the teams ahead of them have a much better then 50% chance of winning each "simulated" game.