Comments on Basement Dwellers: Were Dunn's HR-rates depressed in 2006?

Good point about wind speed & direction on hit...

2007-04-09T16:11:00.000-04:00

Good point about wind speed & direction on hittracker. I think that the wind speed adjustments fall into the category of "it's better than nothing, but could be better."

I'm hoping that Rybarczyk continues to improve hit tracker's reporting to give us more information...but even as it is, the info it provides (e.g. speed off bat) is something we can't find anywhere else. I can't wait to dig around in those data a bit. Just a few projects to finish before I have at it, but it'll at least be a cornerstone of an article or two on Great American Ballpark.

I'm planning to attend the Wednesday game in person, and I'm pretty stoked about that, even if it is "just" Belisle. The other two will be TV-watching games. :)

-j
p.s. I can't help but note that Dunn's Saturday homer certainly gives him a +1 in the JE category this year. :)

True, though as you point out Dunn had far fewer J...

2007-04-08T19:05:00.000-04:00

True, though as you point out Dunn had far fewer JEs (proportionately) than most, so his HR total won't be affected as much by weather as someone like Kearns. It'd be interesting to see a "weather adjusted" HR total, but I don't think that's feasible yet because Hit Tracker (very cool, by the way) doesn't tell you which HRs wouldn't have cleared the fences under neutral conditions. Plus you don't know how many deep fly outs were hampered by the weather. But if you look at Dunn's HRs last year, it looks like at least two wouldn't have made it under neutral conditions (8/20 vs. PIT and the second one on 4/20 vs CHI). I wonder how many times he was "robbed" by the weather on a deep fly.

I'm a little skeptical about the wind adjustments in Hit Tracker. It uses one wind speed and direction for an entire game, which isn't realistic for many games.

It's good timing that we're discussing this now, given how many HRs are being turned into singles or outs because of the cold. Dunn's single in the second game against the Cubs probably would've cleared the wall in July. Griffey had a single today that would've done the same. Hopefully their luck will change in AZ - hope you get to see some of the games.

Ah, good points, I had forgotten about that essay-...

2007-04-07T13:52:00.000-04:00

Ah, good points, I had forgotten about that essay--interesting stuff.

By that logic, though, I wonder if you could also say that there should still have been a population of JE's that would normally have been outs. Dunn hits a lot of high, fairly deep fly balls, just due to his strength. Wouldn't the JE/out's be affected as much as the PL/JE's? :)

I'm going to be doing a lot more with the hitracker website in future posts. It's an incredible resource, and should be a lot of fun to play with. I've got plans and plans and plans... just wish I had more time! -j

Although Dunn had few JEs, his HR distances benefi...

2007-04-07T13:16:00.000-04:00

Although Dunn had few JEs, his HR distances benefitted from favorable weather according to "The Last Word" in THT's season preview. Those temperature and wind conditions gave him an average of 6 extra feet per HR. So some of those PLs would've been JEs in neutral conditions, though it's hard to say how many without more info.

Dunn actualy led the majors in total HR distance gained from weather (Kearns was second), though Gassko rightly points out that Dunn's HR total wasn't inflated by the weather because most of his HRs easily cleared. Kearns, on the other hand, probably had a few extras thanks to the weather. The Preview was a good read - you should check it out sometime. ;)