Comments on Basement Dwellers: May 2007 Reds Review - Part 2: Defense

I've had the distinct feeling for a year or so now...

2007-06-07T01:40:00.000-04:00

I've had the distinct feeling for a year or so now that Junior would gladly go to a team that has a good shot at the playoffs. Lines like "I live in Florida, I just work in Cincinnati" don't indicate a particular loyalty to the franchise. We'll see! :)
-j

Justin,

If Junior could/would play first, I...

2007-06-06T15:44:00.000-04:00

Justin,

If Junior could/would play first, I'm sure the Tigers would be interested. Leyland's recent comments indicate he's pretty fed up with getting nothing outta Da Mayor but a smile.

The possible problem with marketing Junior as a position player is that it brings up the spectre of the injury history. Sure, he could get hurt at DH, but I think more clubs would be willing to take a flyer on him if they thought they could keep him out of the field.

Now whether Junior would agree to any of this is another matter.

As far as other matches for Griffey, injuries can ...

2007-06-06T15:34:00.000-04:00

As far as other matches for Griffey, injuries can happen at any time... I'm sure he could be a great addition at DH, RF, or LF for a lot of clubs. -j

Dave, glad to see I'm not completely senile, but t...

2007-06-06T15:33:00.000-04:00

Dave, glad to see I'm not completely senile, but thanks again for the correction! :)

Phil, the main trouble with trading Dunn to the Angels is that they don't tend to be a bit of a throwback team that focuses on aggressive hitting and doesn't worry too much about OBP. At least, that's my impression of them. I have a feeling they'd like Griffey more, at least in short term. But what the heck do I know, this is all just speculation! :D

I'm not completely opposed to trading Dunn either, but he effectively becomes a free agent with that current contract of his He does have "old player skills" so he might decline faster than some other players. But I don't think he's in danger of imminent collapse yet, so like you say, the return would have to be phenomenal. -j

Justin,

I agree about the Angels. I think t...

2007-06-06T15:25:00.000-04:00

Justin,

I agree about the Angels. I think there are some pieces in that organization that will address some of the current problems. If this comes to pass before the trading deadline, I hope that Krivsky can get fair value.

I'm not in favor of it, but if management is going to trade Dunn, that might be a better match with LA than Junior. I think Dunn, particularly if the Angels can negotiate an extension, will be more likely to return more and better pieces for our puzzle.

But I think that there's a possible roadblock to an Angels/Reds trade as far as getting the value we'd like to have out of it. I don't think the Angels will be "desperate" at the deadline because I expect their AL West lead to have reached "comfortable" by then. The hope will be if they recognize that they don't want to be trotting out the bloated corpse of Shea Hillenbrand at DH during the playoffs. I think we can deal around this better with Dunn and his long-term value rather than Junior.

I'm hard pressed to find a fit for either outside these two teams, at least among the current AL contenders, because we're talking about a couple of DHs here. And I don't see NL teams being players in this for either Dunn or Junior.

Yeah, the article in the Annual was runs, but I ba...

2007-06-06T14:54:00.000-04:00

Yeah, the article in the Annual was runs, but I backed off and just decided to put outs on the site.

You had an article about that stat in the 2006 ann...

2007-06-06T14:47:00.000-04:00

You had an article about that stat in the 2006 annual, right? You reference it in your THT post. I re-encountered the annual article over the winter as I was putting together my fielding review, and somehow got the wrong idea about the units from it (I think). I'll double-check when I get home.

Anyway, I re-read the relevant part of the THT post that I linked to (::blush::), and I do see that it says +- outs. I'm not sure how I screwed that up, but I've been doing that since last January (at least)!

Fortunately, it doesn't change the findings of this analysis, as UZR is showing differences in runs of roughly the same magnitude. So even the thought experiment speculation I did above still works. Anyway, thanks again for the correction.
-j

J, that's probably the confusion. The stats on th...

2007-06-06T13:43:00.000-04:00

J, that's probably the confusion. The stats on the THT page have never been published in the Annual. The Annual contains Dewan's plus/minus system by team, which is a more detailed version of what we have on the site.

Really, that link you provided explains it all (I think!).

Hi Phil,

Re: Gonzalez. I think a lot of hi...

2007-06-06T13:38:00.000-04:00

Hi Phil,

Re: Gonzalez. I think a lot of his perceived defensive value comes from his tendency to avoid errors, and his flashyness in the field. I cited some stats that indicated he was little more than average when we acquired him, including his 3-year mark from '03-'05 in John Dewan's plus/minus system of -1 plays above average.
http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2006/11/reds-sign-alex-gonzalez.html

Other stats disagree somewhat, of course, with UZR putting him as a +9 runs fielder last season (cited above), and THT's Zone Rating placing him well above average:
http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2007/03/how-should-we-calculate-zr.html

I think the net picture is that he should be considered a plus fielder in the long term, but he's not outstanding (i.e. Everett).

As far as Griffey goes, I think the key for the Reds' organization is to get at least one outstanding prospect for him (plus a few middling guys, perhaps). Salary relief for 2008 would be nice, of course, but that's a one-year bonus, so I think that's a lower priority than getting an excellent talent return. This makes me like a trade to the Angels far better than I like a trade to the Yankees. -j

Justin,

Excellent, if depressing, analysis....

2007-06-06T11:27:00.000-04:00

Justin,

Excellent, if depressing, analysis. A few comments...

On EdE: He certainly appears improved since returning from Louisville. Hopefully, this is a new level for Edwin and one that can be maintained. If he can be league average at 3B, we can live with that.

On A-Gon: This is a real disappointment. Gonzalez was given 3yr/$14M with the idea that he was a key to Kriv's "pitching and defense" solution for the team. "Thoroughly average" isn't what's needed at SS, particularly if the major component of EdE's sub-par defense is range. When A-Gon's offensive numbers start regressing to his career norms, this deal will look even worse.

On Junior: This is the first time in the length of Griffey's tenure here that there is an opportunity to trade him and improve the club. At least two AL teams need a left-handed power bat at DH. One, the Angels, have pitching and prospects to give. That would mean the Reds would have to eat some salary. The other, the Evil Empire, can offer salary relief but have little to offer off the big club (that we could use or afford) and little at the top levels of the farm system. Still, getting rid of Junior's remaining 2007 and all of the 2008 salary means opportunity in the FA market in the off-season. Now if I just could trust Krivsky to spend it wisely.

@Dave, thanks, and whoops. I'll have to back and ...

2007-06-06T10:20:00.000-04:00

@Dave, thanks, and whoops. I'll have to back and re-read the THT 2006 annual to refresh myself on that stat. I've been using it for months now! :(

@Ken, I'm sure that this could have something to do with it. The Reds have been dramatically worse than last season, and that just doesn't seem likely to carry over through the whole year. But I haven't had access to this particular sort of stat (+- fielding, based on pbp data) over the course of a regular season before, so it'll be interesting to see how it turns out (hopefully MGL will release again at season's end). -j

How much of the worse-than-expected performances (...

2007-06-06T10:02:00.000-04:00

How much of the worse-than-expected performances (Freel and EdE, mainly) do you attribute to small sample size? The season is still young and neither have played FT at their position.

I do have the impression that Freel is a little worse this year, particularly on his routes to flyballs.

J, the THT stats aren't based on runs. They're pl...

2007-06-06T09:03:00.000-04:00

J, the THT stats aren't based on runs. They're plays made above and below average.

Here are Eddie's UZR totals over his MLB career (t...

2007-06-05T11:36:00.000-04:00

Here are Eddie's UZR totals over his MLB career (the order is runssaved-range, runssaved-errors, runssaved-totals...sorry about the formatting):

2005 +3 -3 0
2006 -9 -11 -20
2007 -7 -2 -9

I should note that I have no idea how the error numbers are calculated or separated from range...as far as I know, there's not a good, comprehensive description of MGL's methodology anywhere. But the data are very troubling--I always assumed, like you, that the problem with Eddie had more to do with consistency than range. ... though maybe those two play into one another.

For comparison (and to see how numbers can change year-to-year), here are data on another 3B, Eric Chavez:

2003 -9 +5 -4
2004 -1 +4 +3
2005 +7 +3 +10
2006 -3 +8 +5
2007 +2 +1 +3

Chavez went from -9 in range in '03 to +7 in range in '05. So I think there's still hope for Eddie. But he's got a long way to go. -j

That's an appropriate picture you chose to use at ...

2007-06-05T11:07:00.000-04:00

That's an appropriate picture you chose to use at the top of the post.

The division between runs saved due to range, and runs saved due to fielding errors, is an extraordinarily interesting one. I hadn't seen that before.

I'm shocked and horrified that Encarnación has such a poor rating due almost entirely to his range. The runs-saved numbers in your 2006 fielding review are not divided between range & errors so it's difficult to compare directly, but I had the distinct impression that Edwin had middling-to-good range.