Comments on Basement Dwellers: June 2007 Reds Review Part 2: Hitting, Pitching, a...

Doug, if you have the time and motivation to post ...

2007-07-06T18:14:04.316-04:00

Doug, if you have the time and motivation to post something with video/graphic evidence of the change in stance, I'd love to see what C. Trent thinks of this. He seems pretty open to comments from the online community, and something like that could be interesting to have him ask Jacoby, Encarnacion, etc, about...if for no other reason than to just satisfy my curiosity! :D -j

Justin,I have some games on video from both this y...

2007-07-06T17:53:21.262-04:00

Justin,
I have some games on video from both this year and last year. I will take a peak at them tonight and break down the swings and see what I can find. To my eye though, I noticed the change in his swing the first time he was at the plate this year.

Hmm, now that I think about it may have been from ...

2007-07-06T13:58:11.576-04:00

Hmm, now that I think about it may have been from the infamous Mr. Redlegs's blog:

"4a. Little, if nothing, has been written about batting coach Brook Jacoby changing EE’s stance and how it’s not working out thus far. Eddie apparently uses the stance in some at-bats and not in others. Most scouts believe he is going to be a major run producer and, frankly, until proven to be broke, why fiddle with his stance?"

So, perhaps the statement needs a grain of salt with it. I'm not astute enough to tell if his mechanics have changed, but it seems logical that changes have been made given that his power seems to have diminished drastically at an age when it should be starting to blossom.

You're the second person (Doug Gray is the other) ...

2007-07-06T12:59:30.411-04:00

You're the second person (Doug Gray is the other) I've seen who has cited changes to Eddie's swing (any media references? We should get C-Trent on this) prior to this season. I don't see why they were trying to change Eddie's swing. He had a fine season last year, with no apparent weaknesses in his game, perfectly acceptable strikeout rates, high walk rates, etc. I do think he'll bounce out of it, but why not go back to what worked for him before?

As far as Dunn, I did notice it, but decided to give it another month before I talked about it. Pizza Cutter's work did indicate that he made a lot more "false negative" mistakes than otherwise, so it's not a terrible thing if he's being more aggressive. But the goal of that would be to decrease strikeouts, even at the cost of decreased walks. Since his strikeout rate is holding steady, whatever new thing he's doing (consciously or unconsciously) may be hurting his overall production.

If the rumors are to be believed, Dunn's not going to be our "problem" much longer anyway. I'll miss the big lug.
-j

Excellent work Justin! Thanks for putting the tim...

2007-07-06T09:05:20.210-04:00

Excellent work Justin! Thanks for putting the time in to compile this stuff.

While EdE's BABIP is high this month, his April and May BABIP were both a little low, and his overall .320 BABIP for the season is in line with his 20% line drive rate. His lack of power is a little concerning, but Jacoby had him make some adjustments to his swing during the spring, and I think maybe those adjustments have made it harder to find the power stroke. Hopefully, we'll see his power start to come around a bit in the second half, otherwise they should fire Jacoby. :)

Something that you didn't mention but hinted at was Dunn's walk rate. While his strikeout rate is pretty consistent with his previous few seasons, his walk rate has dropped around 4 to 5%. Looking at his pitch summary data on Baseball Reference, it looks like he's swinging at a lot more pitches now (between 4 & 5% more) and he's making less contact (between 2 & 3% less) than in the past. This has led him to see about half as many 3-0 counts and about 5% fewer 2-0 counts. Amazingly, outside of walks and OBP, the rest of his numbers haven't changed that much. I guess when your game is to hit the ball far, as long as you don't screw that up, you'll be able to maintain most of your numbers. I'd still like to see him get back to taking a few more walks now and then.