Comments on Basement Dwellers: Reds Sign Francisco Cordero (probably)

I think you have to look at what you can do to ...

2007-11-27T17:18:00.000-05:00
I think you have to look at what you can do to improve the ballclub based on what is actually available right now.

Agreed, but overspending because so-and-so is the best available is not winning logic. I'm not going to bring up the former Reds signing that went along with that logic because Cordero is a much better pitcher, but I think you can see the damage that filling holes with the best available player logic can do.

But holding onto all of your money for the rosey-looking future day seems like a good way to avoid putting yourself in a position to take advantage of a lucky streak here and there.

I'm not saying that the Reds should hold on to all of their money. Rather my point is that the goal isn't just to win now, it's to win every year and that takes some planning. Teams like the Yankes, Red Sox, and Angels can look at their roster and say, "What holes need to be filled this year?" and fill them. Teams like the Reds have to plan out into the future and try to determine when holes will present themselves and whether they will have the resources to fill them. I understand what you are saying about not holding out for who might be available, but I think you do have to have an eye on the future when signing a contract like this or it might prevent you from making a better move later on.

And it is not for me to say whether or not they will be able to sign players in the future, obviously. But I look at this signing as reactionary and I'm concerned that Krivsky may be making sacrifices for the future in order to win now.

Ultimately I agree with you on your overall perspective on the signing. I think Cordero makes the Reds a better team and helps fix one of their needs. I also agree that it is an overpriced contract and I fear that may come back to haunt the Reds. I'm very conservative when it comes to big contracts and I'm not sure that Cordero would fall in the group that I would give one to.

If that's where you are concerning Cordero's contr...

2007-11-27T15:57:00.000-05:00
If that's where you are concerning Cordero's contract, I'm not sure how you could sit in the middle... :-)

And if you think it is more important to get a ...

2007-11-27T13:08:00.000-05:00
And if you think it is more important to get a stud closer than a good starting pitcher, well then I think we're looking at different teams when we see the Reds.

Joel, if the good starting pitchers were available right now, I'd completely agree that the Reds would have been far better served by going after the starter. But we're talking about hypothetically-available pitchers a year from now. Maybe they'll be available. Maybe they won't.

I don't think the Reds should severely overpay for someone at this stage (Tango's estimates have this contract at $10-20 million too much...and his valuation is more generous than mine was). But at the same time, I think you have to look at what you can do to improve the ballclub based on what is actually available right now. Doesn't mean you mortgage the future, of course. But holding onto all of your money for the rosey-looking future day seems like a good way to avoid putting yourself in a position to take advantage of a lucky streak here and there.

It's funny, because I'm really in the middle on this signing, so no matter what I say people will disagree with me (and I realize not all of these comments are directed at me, despite my chronic narcissism). ;)

I think it definitely improves the Reds in '08. But I also think the Reds overpaid, perhaps by as much as $20 million over the course of the contract, for what we can even optimistically count on Cordero to provide. -j

Justin:

I have further developed my analogy...

2007-11-27T10:40:00.000-05:00
Justin:

I have further developed my analogy to the way the A's develop closers over at RedsZone at this link: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=63824

I know not all of those pitchers are going to be a...

2007-11-27T08:59:00.000-05:00
I know not all of those pitchers are going to be available, but I would bet that at least half of them will and every single pitcher on that list would be an upgrade to the Reds rotation (though admittedly I wouldn't pursue every pitcher as they all carry their own risks). And if you think it is more important to get a stud closer than a good starting pitcher, well then I think we're looking at different teams when we see the Reds.

And finally, our objective as an organization is to win THIS year, not next year, not in 09 or 2010, but now.

I would say the objective is to build a winning organization that is competitive every year. Do you seriously think that the addition of Cordero makes the Reds into a winner in 2008? Even if he added 5 wins (a lot for a reliever), that still leaves them about 8 games short of competing for the division. I think they'll get some improvement from Encarnacion and hopefully a longer season from Hamilton, but I also expect small falloffs from Phillips and the shortstops. Maybe Belisle will pitch better, and I think it would be great if Bailey pitched as well as Lohse did, but I wouldn't expect a lot of improvement in the rotation.

What I'm saying is that this team still needs a lot more help than a stud closer. The influx of youth will help provide some of that, but realistically those guys will likely be more ready for 2009 than 2008. That's the point when a big free agent signing will put this team over the top. And maybe the Reds can still do that, but given that they're also going to need to replace Griffey and Dunn in the lineup, I'm not as confident that the money will be there to fill all of the necessary holes.

Off the top of my head I think Plunk and Willie He...

2007-11-26T19:33:00.000-05:00
Off the top of my head I think Plunk and Willie Hernandez threw boatloads more innings than Francisco Cordero. Cordero has been a strictly one inning pitcher his entire major league career. I don't think he ever pitched over 100 innings, did he? I just really don't see age being a major factor in this. If he was 35 I would say its of some concern, but at 32 he is a spring chicken, especially when you see how little he has pitched in his career.

As for dollars and cents, it looks like payroll has been increased and it also looks like Eric Milton's contract off the books has freed up some more juice. Someone mentioning next years crop of pitchers... Who knows how many of these guys get signed to long term deals this season BEFORE they reach the free agent market. I doubt all those guys will be available. Who knows what the salaries will be like, but the trend is that they inflate significantly every season, so I seriously doubt you are gonna get a better deal. Also most of those guys on your list are starters, and our biggest need is a stud closer, which is what Cordero is.

And finally, our objective as an organization is to win THIS year, not next year, not in 09 or 2010, but now. We live in the present. No fan wants to go spend moneyknowing his team is playing for the following season. I want playoffs next year. If the team wins next season, they make more $$$ in season tickets and attendance and merchandise and have bigger payroll the subsequent year.

I agree with a lot of what has been said since my ...

2007-11-26T15:27:00.000-05:00
I agree with a lot of what has been said since my last post, so I'm just going to respond to a few points about which I actually have something to say. :)

@Aaron, the PECOTA projections I cited above are based on age-calibrated comparisons to Cordero's most similar pitchers. Prior to '07, the top of that list (according to BPro) included Roberto Hernandez and Eric Plunk. Hernandez remained effective through age 41, though was not as effective from age 33-41 as he was from age 27-32. Plunk seemed to fall off the wagon at age 33 (he was awesome at age 32), and never really regained his footing.

In contrast to PECOTA, Symborski's ZiPS is very positive about Cordero throughout the contract. So that's encouraging. I'll still be quite interested in seeing the '08 PECOTAs when they come out, as they tend to be a touch more reliable than ZiPS from what I've seen (emphasis on "a touch," as ZiPS is darn good).

So while there's certainly a chance--and perhaps a decent one--that he'll remain effective throughout his contract, there is still a significant risk that he'll decline. Obviously, we're all hoping he continues to be awesome for years to come. :)

@Joel, I see that point, but I tend to subscribe to the idea of doing what you need to do to get ready for the coming year whenever possible--this isn't a competitive division, so even getting to 0.500 can get you in the thick of things. And we don't really know how the Reds' rotation (or anything else) will look in '08. Maybe that won't be the biggest need?

Obviously, one shouldn't mortgage away the future by trading prospects and massively overpaying for free agents(...), but saving for the hypothetical future is tough to do because it's hard to know how many of those guys you mentioned will be available (think of all the pitchers who signed extensions this season)...not to mention what they'll cost. Tango, for example, just estimated that Santana's current free agent value to be ~$26 million/year. And starting pitchers tend to be rather risky investments as free agents...

@Jojo,
Because a FO with this kind of MO concerning personnel decisions will tend to be less able to compete with better run franchises.

Took me a full minute to work out this sentence! :P

Speaking of better-run franchises, it will be interesting to see how Masahide Kobayashi does for the Indians over the coming years. Sounds like a similar pitcher, though he doesn't throw quite as hard.
-j

Justin:

I'm not saying that building a qual...

2007-11-26T14:47:00.000-05:00
Justin:

I'm not saying that building a quality pen doesn't take skill. I'm suggesting the chronic inability to build one speaks volumes....

Spending $50M on one arm in your pen doesn't indicate competence unless the bar is simply set to the ultra-low threshold of "if it improves the team, it's a good decision". We know that's an impractical threshold in the real world. Obvious overpays typically should be reserved for those last few wins that dramatically increase a team's chances for a playoff appearance (if the Reds were sitting on 85 wins, I'd probably be less critical though I'd still be disappointed). While anything can happen, I think most reasonable observers would concede that the Cordero signing most likely isn't one such move.

Why should even fans who only worry about wins and losses also care about this stuff? Because a FO with this kind of MO concerning personnel decisions will tend to be less able to compete with better run franchises.

RMR,

The only thing I would say is that we ...

2007-11-26T11:24:00.000-05:00
RMR,

The only thing I would say is that we do know another cart is coming around next season and will have some, if not all, of these starters available:
AJ Burnett
Jon Garland
Derek Lowe
Pedro Martinez
Brad Penny
C.C Sabathia
Johan Santana
Ben Sheets
Paul Byrd
Aaron Cook
Oliver Perez

My only concern with this deal is that it will prohibit the Reds from being involved in what is looking like the biggest free agent market in the last 5 years. Add in several good bats (including Adam Dunn) and there could be a lot of good players available next year. Obviously the Reds won't be in play on all of them, but with so many good players available, they likely have a shot at some of them if they can put up the right money.

So, while I like having Cordero in the pen and I think it's a great upgrade, I'm concerned that the Reds may have spent their wad too soon. Clearly we don't know what the payroll will be next year, but if the money going to Cordero keeps the Reds from pursuing one of those starters or replacing Dunn's bat (or resigning Dunn), then I'll be a little disappointed.

One of the things we have to be careful of is jump...

2007-11-26T10:46:00.000-05:00
One of the things we have to be careful of is jumping from "bad value" to "bad signing".

Let's say you're really hungry and have $10. There are two food vendors who will be around just long enough for you to visit one of them. You can either have a mini-burger for $1 or you can have two large pieces of pizza for $6.

In a vacuum, clearly the half-burger is the better deal. You'd be left with $9 to go spend elsewhere. But you can't eat your $9 and you don't know if and when the next food cart is showing up.

The context of the decision matters. While 'Coco' is certainly not a great "value" from the Wins/$ perspective, the bottom line is that the Reds are a much better team with him in the fold. Sometimes we can overthink these kinds of things.

If you're hungry and can afford either the mini-burger or the pizza, get the one that fills you up. It remains to be see just what the financial impact of the deal is. If the Reds are forced to lose talent elsewhere because of this signing, then it definitely looks worse. But until we have a clearer picture of the fiscal landscape, let's not go too far down the road of crying "bad investment".

Opportunity cost aside, an overpaid all-star is better than an underpaid role player. Unless the opportunity cost becomes significant, this is a great signing.

I cant believe age is an issue at 32. We are talk...

2007-11-26T04:32:00.000-05:00
I cant believe age is an issue at 32. We are talking about a reliever here who only has to give us 70 innings. Didn't Lee Smith and Dennis Eckersely pitch into their 40s effectively? Look at Mariano Rivera for Christ's sake. THis is a modern era where players have more longevity than in ages past. 32 is friggin young, he is in his prime NOW. And why are people saying last year was his best year? he had better ERA in Texas and his first year in Milwaukee. This was a fantastic signing because it fills the REDS biggest need. Maybe the A's had luck finding young relievers but the Reds have rolled snake eyes 3 years in a row now, and we need a proven commidity to compete now.

Well, finding a reliever who has an ERA one run be...

2007-11-25T23:30:00.000-05:00
Well, finding a reliever who has an ERA one run better than average might not be as hard as it is for starting pitchers (mostly because pitchers do better in relief), but it's clearly not as easy as some fans make it out to be--or as easy as moneyball indicated. After all, we've seen very well-run teams like the Indians struggle with their bullpen in recent years (pre-'07).

That said, as I argued in previous posts, it is a position where a bit of creativity, a bit of luck, and a bit of insight into the relative performances of pitchers as starters or relievers can allow a good GM to assemble a quality 'pen on the cheap. Saying it's not hard, though, is taking things too far.
-j

Justin,

I think the point wasn't that quali...

2007-11-25T22:57:00.000-05:00
Justin,

I think the point wasn't that quality relievers are expendable but rather that they really aren't that difficult to find...

Mike,

I think moneyball took the reliever t...

2007-11-25T13:02:00.000-05:00
Mike,

I think moneyball took the reliever thing a bit too far, as it gives the impression that quality relievers are expendable. That's clearly not the case--in fact, outstanding relievers are one of the most important ways to succeed in the playoffs. Nevertheless, I would be surprised to see a few teams trade their closers this offseason to take advantage of the kind of value being placed on them. Jose Valverde's name keeps getting mentioned, and the Diamondbacks seem like a pretty smart franchise..

As for his home/away splits, I posted something about this at redlegnation.. You're looking at 22 innings in his away splits. That's not worth worry about. His career splits do show slightly better performance at home than away, but it's not substantial.

And as for his performance at GABP, Texas is the best hitters park in the American League, and he did just fine there. I'd expect his hr rates to increase slightly, but if he can keep striking out 10+/9, there won't be enough balls in play for his flyball tendencies to make a huge impact on his value.

I don't see this as Eric Milton II. Milton was someone who was already a demonstrably weak pitcher based on his peripherals and was coming off a very lucky season in Philadelpia. Cordero is a quality reliever. The question with Cordero is whether his age will catch up to him. That was never really the big concern with Milton--the issue there was his suckitude. :)
-j

"It seems to me that the reliever market, at this ...

2007-11-25T12:41:00.000-05:00
"It seems to me that the reliever market, at this point, is extremely inefficient, and that's something a "smart" club could take advantage of."

In the book 'Moneyball', this is discussed at length. Billy Beane would strongly agree with you. He repeatedly 'created' a good relief pitcher, and then traded him away for talent, and 'made' another one.

I think we will all regret this signing. Cordero will have to put up all-star numbers for three years out of four to justify this contract.

What about his home/road splits? He was light out in Miller Park, and below average elsewhere last year. GABP is very, very elsewhere. What will a 42.5% fly ball rate on balls in play mean for the Reds at GABP next year?

I am afraid that what we have here is Eric Milton II.

Dave,

Replacement level is defined as the p...

2007-11-24T20:31:00.000-05:00
Dave,

Replacement level is defined as the performance value of a player that one could acquire for virtually nothing. Under such a definition, it's a league-wide (or MLB-wide) value, not something that is organization specific. If an organization can't meet replacement level, that's the fault of the front office, as that level of performance should be possible to achieve for next to zero investment.

The issue of what's available in a market is something that comes up now and then, and I'm not entirely sure that it's appropriate to go that route. It seems to me that the starting point, at least, should be to determine the value of a marginal win (currently ~4.5 million), and then assign value to players based on how much they contribute to those marginal wins vs. a replacement player. It seems to me that the reliever market, at this point, is extremely inefficient, and that's something a "smart" club could take advantage of.

But as I said, this is stuff I've just begun to think about. So maybe I"m wrong.
-j

One problem I have with some of your calculations ...

2007-11-24T19:48:00.000-05:00
One problem I have with some of your calculations one the value is that the replacement player value is constant across all organizations. The only way around this would be to create a metric to define the replacement players for RP in an organization by using bullpen statistics across the each minor league club, thus defining a replacement player in terms of actual talent at hand. We actually got the see the value of replacement players last year at RP, and it wasn't high at all.

You calculation also does not factor in current market conditions. When Linebrink gets 5 mil a year, Cordero should get at least 10.

Great post, and I really like the deal. It was especially nice to here that we stole him from the Brewers and Astros.

Hi Ken,

I'm really not qualified to comment...

2007-11-24T13:04:00.000-05:00
Hi Ken,

I'm really not qualified to comment on WXRL vs. WPA, to be honest. It seems like it's doing the same thing I'm doing in trying to get a win expectancy measure above replacement.

However, I'm skeptical about whether or not they're using a high enough baseline for replacement level relievers, and that could be a big part of the difference. I'd have to look around to see if I could find their methods.

It's also worth noting that Cordero was exceptionally good last year, and thus is likely to decline a tad next season. As I said, something in line with his 3-year averages would be an appropriate projection.
-j

J - BPro's WXRL shows Cordero a little more than 3...

2007-11-24T12:22:00.000-05:00
J - BPro's WXRL shows Cordero a little more than 3 wins above replacement for last year, which would make him a fair value (for '08 anways). I know WXRL adjusts for lineup but I don't have Between the Numbers in front of me and I can't remember more about how it's calculated. What are your thoughts on WXRL? Good stuff as always.

Comments on Basement Dwellers: Reds Sign Francisco Cordero (probably)

I think you have to look at what you can do to ...

If that's where you are concerning Cordero's contr...

And if you think it is more important to get a ...

Justin:I have further developed my analogy...

I know not all of those pitchers are going to be a...

Off the top of my head I think Plunk and Willie He...

I agree with a lot of what has been said since my ...

Justin:I'm not saying that building a qual...

RMR,The only thing I would say is that we ...

One of the things we have to be careful of is jump...

I cant believe age is an issue at 32. We are talk...

Well, finding a reliever who has an ERA one run be...

Justin,I think the point wasn't that quali...

Mike,I think moneyball took the reliever t...

"It seems to me that the reliever market, at this ...

Dave,Replacement level is defined as the p...

One problem I have with some of your calculations ...

Hi Ken,I'm really not qualified to comment...

J - BPro's WXRL shows Cordero a little more than 3...

Justin:

I have further developed my analogy...

Justin:

I'm not saying that building a qual...

RMR,

The only thing I would say is that we ...

Justin,

I think the point wasn't that quali...

Mike,

I think moneyball took the reliever t...

Dave,

Replacement level is defined as the p...

Hi Ken,

I'm really not qualified to comment...