The finding that the #3 hitter should be such an a...

2006-03-11T01:21:00.000-05:00

The finding that the #3 hitter should be such an average hitter, based on the above analysis has been nagging at me. As TeamSelig pointed out in my post over at RedsZone (see cross-post link above), the #3 hitter will receive more at-bats than even the #4 hitter. Why would you put a crappy hitter in that position?

Reading the recent Hardball Times article that got me thinking about all of this in the first place might be starting to give us an answer regarding this point. It discusses a chapter on lineup construction in The Book, which is now high up on my birthday wishlist. :)

Points from the article:
* First, by putting a very high OBA guy (as is traditionally done) in the #3 hole, you're sacrificing runs in the second inning, because the #3 hitter is the least likely to lead off that inning.
* Second, the #3 hitter is the most likely player to hit with two outs and nobody on base among any of the top-5 lineup spots.

Another interesting tid-bit on speed guys:
* Stolen bases are most valuable when in front of singles hitters who don't strike out much.
* A caught stealing attempt is more costly when in front of power hitters than singles hitters.

Both of these seem "obvious," but also unappreciated. They argue for a speed guy hitting 6th when they are not among your top-5 best hitters, as this will put them in front of lower-power guys, maximizing the reward/cost ratio for any theft activity.

I'm not sure I'd go so far as to bat the winner of the Freel/Womack 6th, however. The regression analysis showed big payoffs for a power hitting #6 batter, and given that we have Wily Mo Pena on our roster, I think he has to go #6. So it comes down to either Edwin Encarnacion or Freel/Womack at #7, with the pitcher #8. My druthers would be to hit Freel/Womack 7th, as this gives you the option of stealing in front of a pinch hitter late in the game, or in front of EdE. Much better to do that than to steal in front of Adam Dunn. -JinAZ

:)

2006-03-07T22:52:00.000-05:00

Oh great, now I have ANOTHER blog that I have to r...

2006-03-07T16:40:00.000-05:00

Oh great, now I have ANOTHER blog that I have to read everyday. You're just trying to show me up by starting a blog and having a kid at the same time. Sheesh! :D

Comments on Basement Dwellers: Lineup Construction

The finding that the #3 hitter should be such an a...

:)

Oh great, now I have ANOTHER blog that I have to r...