@ctrent says any reaction to a draft pick is an overreaction. I think that's a slight overstatement, but it's also true that baseball drafts are full of disappointment. Erik's been doing a lot of work recently evaluating past selections, and the numbers aren't pretty:
- 57% of all college hitters in the first round bust. 11% become stars. Including the stars, 19% become every day regulars.
- 65% of all high school hitters bust. 9% become stars. Stars included, 19% become every day players.
- I’ve already ranted about high school pitchers, but college pitchers aren’t much better so I’ll just lump them together. 69% of all pitchers drafted in the first round bust. Just 3% become stars during their first six seasons. Including stars, 12% became average regulars or better.
- About 7 of the 10 names you hear called tomorrow evening are going to flop, even some of the ballyhooed (and expensive) “big upside” players.
So, that all said, what do we know about Mike Leake aside from his Sun Devil pedigree? I don't know anything about him, so here's what I'm reading and watching:
- Doug at rml is always my go-to source for all things minor & amateur. Here's his pre-draft profile of Leake.
- MLB profile and scouting report.
- Leake's blog. Leake goes by "Leaker." :)
- Chris Buckley's audio on Leake. They'll never say anything bad about him, but it's hard to not feel optimistic about him from the descriptions. I've been hearing Tim Hudson as a comp, mostly due to height and polish. Obviously, that would be a nice addition to the organization.
- I don't get MLB network, but Keith Law had a lot of nice things to say about Leake on ESPN News.
- CTrent posted excerpts from a conference call with Leake. Sounds like a nice kid. And apparently, despite attending ASU, he sometimes reads books!
- Red Reporter draft guru Thundering Turtle's takes on Leake, along with other commenters, are full of great links (some are linked below). Another TT take.
- Kevin Goldstein apparently likes the Leake pick, which is nice to see. Losing access to him on draft day is my only regret in letting my BPro subscription lapse.
Bradley Boxberger is the 2nd selection as a comp for Jeremy Affeldt. Power arm with command issues. Might stick as a starter, but perhaps more likely as reliever.
Billy Hamilton is the 3rd selection in the second round. Apparently has major football commitments, which the Reds will have to lure him away from. They pulled it off with Adam Dunn, so maybe they'll pull it off this time as well.
3rd-round selection (4th pick) is Don Joseph I haven't seen much on yet. Power lefty out of a college pen, with a history of control issues. I like lefties who throw 93 mph as a general rule, so I like the pick, even if he his ceiling is (a hopefully healthy) Bill Bray.
All in all, it seems like a successful first day. My only concern is that if Hamilton does NOT sign, then the Reds will have failed to draft & sign a position player through the first three rounds. Pitchers are necessary, of course, but they're also higher risk signs, on average. But hey, let's hope for the best. Conceivably, the Reds could have just selected two starters, a lefty setup man, and a future SS/CF today. Hope it works out!