Reds' first-round draft performance

Erik at BtB has been doing a series of recaps of old drafts. I noticed that after three such recaps (1994, 1995, and 1996), the Reds' first round selections had netted ... -2.1 WAR. Yes, that's a negative sign. First-round selections routinely perform much, much better than lower-round picks (see Rany Jazayerli's or Victor Wang's work on drafts for details), so three years with zero production isn't good.

I thought that, rather than wait on Erik, I'd take a quick look at the first round of drafts starting in 2005 (Jay Bruce's year) and going back as long as there have been drafts. WAR totals are from FanGraphs for recent players, and from Rally's career WAR estimates for older players. Note that any production you see isn't necessarily (and often is not) with the Reds, though I did try to discard to the guys who were drafted but didn't sign. A huge thank-you to Baseball-reference for their fantastic draft tool, which made getting a list of these players incredibly easy.

Year	Rnd	Type	OvPck	Pos G	G	WAR	Comments
1965	1		16	Bernie Carbo 3B	1010	18.3	Always lives in my mind as the guy drafted the round before Johnny Bench
1966	1	1sc	10	Dan McGinn LHP	211	-4.5
1966	1	6sc	11	John Dow OF
1966	1		13	Gary Nolan RHP	247	27.4
1967	1	1rg	7	Marvin Branscomb OF
1967	1	1sc	11	David Speas INF
1967	1	6sc	6	Frank Duffy SS	915	7.1
1967	1		8	Wayne Simpson RHP	80	-0.7
1968	1	1rg	14	Donald Shrum RHP
1968	1	1sc	16	Charles West OF
1968	1	6sc	5	Mel Behney LHP	5	-0.6
1968	1		13	Timothy Grant RHP
1969	1	1rg	13	John Jackson RHP
1969	1	1sc	17	Ross Grimsley LHP	174	6.1
1969	1	6sc	14	Johnny Grubb OF	1424	DNS
1969	1		14	Don Gullett LHP	254	16.6	Am I obligated to ask "what could have been?"
1970	1	1rg	16	Dale Harrington RHP
1970	1	1sc	18	Harold Wall RHP
1970	1	6sc	9	Pat Osburn LHP	6	-0.5
1970	1		15	Gary Polczynski SS
1971	1	1rg	22	Eddie Tobin OF
1971	1	1sc	12	Gaylin Pabst SS
1971	1		24	Mike Miley SS	84	-1.6
1972	1	1rg	8	Greg Sinatro SS
1972	1	1sc	16	Tom Hume RHP	554	6.4	Also former bullpen & pitching coach
1972	1		7	Larry Payne RHP
1973	1	1sc	9	Jeff Chandler LHP
1973	1	6sc	18	Gary Lucas LHP	334	5.4
1973	1		22	Charles Kessler OF
1974	1	1rg	24	Mike Armstrong RHP	22	0.4
1974	1	1sc	22	James Diventi RHP
1974	1	6sc	1	Mike Gatlin 3B
1974	1		23	Steve Reed RHP
1975	1	1rg	21	James Slaughter C
1975	1	1sc	5	Lawrence Pekarcik RHP
1975	1	6sc	14	Scott Burk SS
1975	1		22	Tony Moretto OF
1976	1	1rg	24	Roderick Patterson RHP
1976	1	1sc	22	Duane Walker OF	392	1.3
1976	1	6sc	3	Bruce Berenyi RHP	142	5.0
1976	1		23	Mark King RHP
1977	1	1rg	23	Gregg Lorenz LHP
1977	1	1sc	1	Bill Scherrer LHP	147	1.0
1977	1	6sc	15	Robert Potts OF
1977	1		24	Tad Venger 3B
1978	1	1sc	16	Wayne Guinn RHP
1978	1	6sc	9	Brad Lesley RHP	49	0.4
1978	1		17	Nick Esasky SS	810	7.5
1979	1	1rg	21	Kevin Waller OF
1979	1	1sc	3	Bill Bordley LHP
1979	1	6sc	16	Larry Mikesell LHP
1979	1		20	*Dan Lamar C
1979	1		22	Mike Sullivan RHP
1980	1	1rg	20	Mark Bowden LHP
1980	1	1sc	22	Scott Meier C
1980	1	6sc	3	Kevin Maroney OF
1980	1		19	Ron Robinson RHP	202	7.9
1981	1	1rg	15	Daniel Durst RHP
1981	1	1sc	3	Rob Murphy LHP	396	4.0
1981	1	6sc	24	Don Long SS
1982	1	1rg	24	Orsino Hill OF
1982	1	1sc	13	Rickie Carter OF
1982	1	6sc	7	Kal Daniels OF	727	16.8	Tons of talent, but what a frustrating player
1982	1		22	*Scott Jones LHP
1982	1		23	Billy Hawley RHP
1982	1s		28	*Robert Jones 1B
1983	1	1rg	1	Ted Langdon RHP
1983	1	1sc	1	Tracy Jones 3B	493	1.5
1983	1	6sc	20	Rob Dibble RHP	354	8.8	I still can't reconcile Talk Show Dibble with Crazy Dibble.
1983	1		2	Kurt Stillwell SS	998	1.5	Aren't iffy-fielding shortstops supposed to hit?
1984	1	1rg	6	Dusty Rogers LHP
1984	1	1sc	22	Fred Carter 3B
1984	1		5	Pat Pacillo RHP	19	-0.7
1985	1	1rg	3	Scott Willis RHP
1985	1	1sc	11	Tom Powers RHP
1985	1	6sc	19	Jeff Forney OF
1985	1		4	Barry Larkin SS	2180	70.1	My favorite player of all time
1986	1	1rg	18	Ron Wenrich OF
1986	1	1sc	16	Rick Parker C
1986	1	6sc	7	Greg Lonigro INF
1986	1		17	Scott Scudder RHP	71	-1.6
1987	1		18	Jack Armstrong RHP	116	2.2	Hr/9 dropped to 0.5 for 1990. Was it all an illusion?
1989	1		20	Scott Bryant OF
1990	1		7	Dan Wilson C	1299	13.5	I always regretted this trade
1991	1		20	Pokey Reese SS	856	6.0	Recently cited by Tango as one of the best gloves of the past decade
1992	1		5	Chad Mottola OF	59	-0.9
1993	1s		32	*Pat Watkins OF	116	-0.1
1994	1		9	C.J. Nitkowski LHP	95	-2.2
1996	1		25	John Oliver OF
1996	1s		33	*Matt McClendon RHP
1997	1		14	Brandon Larson SS	109	-0.7	I'll never understand what happened
1998	1		7	Austin Kearns OF	791	16.3	I still like him
1999	1		14	Ty Howington LHP			injury
2000	1		23	David Espinosa SS			Released by Detroit after '07, played Indie ball in '08
2000	1s		34	*Dustin Moseley RHP	64	1.7	Ramon Ortiz
2001	1		20	Jeremy Sowers LHP	51	DNS	Still angry
2002	1		3	Christopher Gruler RHP			injury? I forget
2002	1s		40	*Mark Schramek 3B			Washed out in Sarasota
2003	1		14	Ryan Wagner RHP	146	0.2	I'll never understand what happened
2004	1		7	Homer Bailey RHP	16	0.1	There's still time
2005	1		12	Jay Bruce OF	140	2.0	Bruce!

So, after the once in a lifetime drafting of Barry Larkin, the only 5+ career WAR players from the first round were Dan Wilson (who returned the less-valuable pre-Seattle Brett Boone), Pokey Reese, and Austin Kearns (who we traded for Majewski and Bray...). I don't have a control here, but my perception is that this is pretty lousy performance. There have been contributers from other rounds, of course, but poor (at least as measured by outcome) first-round drafts are clearly one of the reasons the Reds have struggled over the past decade.